Hurricane season peaks each year from August to October, and October has historically been one of the busier months for activity. As the season winds down, it’s important to look at how the season has performed and what may still be in store.
First, let’s recap the 2026 season to-date. We’re in an El Niño year, which typically means less activity because warmer Pacific Ocean temperatures create strong winds that make it more difficult for storms to develop in the Atlantic region. At the beginning of 2026, the NOAA predicted 8-14 named storms, 3-6 of which they believed could develop into hurricanes, and one possibly evolving into a major hurricane.
By the end of September, there have only been five tropical storms, and no hurricanes in the Atlantic. This activity is far below average and obviously significantly less than predicted. In fact, it’s the quietest start to a season ever, having gone the longest without a hurricane forming in the Atlantic since satellite tracking began in 1966 - a record previously held by the 2013 season, and then 2002 before it. Which, on the surface, is an event that happens generally every ten years. To add even more context to how mild a season it’s been, of the five tropical storms we’ve seen this year, only one - Bertha - lasted longer than a single day, and damage was largely contained to rainfall.
Of course, this is good news. Activity is quiet, keeping the chance of having cat bonds impaired at bay. So what can we expect the rest of 2026 to look like? El Niño is typically associated with calmer hurricane seasons, but this year the weather phenomenon is developing into a super El Niño, which could mean it might dampen catastrophic activity even more. When looking at the last four times that happened, there was only one September hurricane for each year, which is usually 1-2 less for the month.
For now, experts are predicting that we’re on track for one of the quietest seasons we’ve ever seen. The NOAA released an August report noting that there was a 75% chance for below-normal activity, with a 20% chance of a normal season, and only a 5% chance that activity will be above average.
Recently, at the end of September, there was an emergence of nor’easter – which is classified as an extratropical cyclone – threatening strong winds and flooding from North Carolina up through the East Coast. Nor’easters are powerful low-pressure systems, and while not typically associated with cat bonds, can still deliver damage reinsurers will likely use for storm predictions for the future.
Otherwise, we would do well to acknowledge that while things are quiet in the Atlantic, El Niño creates more activity in the Pacific. US-based cat bonds are exposed to Atlantic region activity, but we continue to monitor threats from the Pacific.
As of the writing of this article, we saw the emergence of Hurricane Polo, a category 5 threat and one of the strongest storms the Pacific has seen in decades. Polo had made landfall, but did not trigger the $175 million in Mexico’s parametric catastrophe bonds.
Hurricane Polo is a stark reminder that even though Pacific threats are usually lower-risk - because they develop farther away from land - it doesn’t mean a storm won’t evolve and cause unexpected damage.
Hurricanes will always be a priority for reinsurers when it comes to alleviating potential financial burdens, and for investors, understanding how these seasons unfold, shift, and why are critical for determining which cat bonds they want to invest in. There’s never a guarantee a year will be a good or bad one, but for now, it appears 2026 should be relatively tame.
Sources:
NOAA
The Weather Channel
FOX Weather
Howard University
US News
NPR
Insurance Business Magazine